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NBA  |  Nov 24, 2015
Mavs vs. Grizzlies
in 57m

#NBA Free Pick from Mike Lundin
Play: Dallas Mavericks
Rating: 8*

The Dallas Mavericks suffered a 117-114 defeat at Oklahoma City Sunday. They had won six straight prior though, and I like their chances of winning outright when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies Tuesday night. Memphis had a winning streak of its own ended over the weekend as it had won three straight prior to losing 92-82 at San Antonia Saturday. The offense was extremely lackluster, and they were a pathetic 1-for-9 from 3-point range. They have been without important power forward Zach Randolph in the last two games, and my guess is that he will sit out tonight as well. The Grizzlies are 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games and the Mavs are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Memphis.

Note that:
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NCAA-F  |  Nov 24, 2015
Ohio vs. Northern Illinois
in 22m

Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Ohio +13.5

Northern Illinois certainly has a lot to play for here. A win would put it in the MAC Championship Game for a sixth consecutive season. But I believe that fact has the Huskies overvalued here as 13.5-point favorites. Asking them to win by two touchdowns to cover against this surging Ohio team is asking too much.

The Bobcats have been playing great coming in. They beat Kent State 27-0 and outgained the Golden Flashes by 256 yards in the process. Then they racked up 607 total yards in a 48-31 home win over Ball State, outgaining the Cardinals by 186 yards.

Many will look at the Bobcats’ losses to Bowling Green (24-62) and Buffalo (17-41) in their previous two games and think they can’t hang with Northern Illinois. But a closer look at the box score of those games shows they were not that big of blowouts.

They were only outgianed by 38 yards against Bowling Green, and they actually outgained Buffalo by 49 yards. But they were -6 in turnover differential in those two games. They didn’t commit a turnover in either of their last two games, and they’ve committed one or fewer turnovers in eight of their 11 games this season, so it was an aberration.

I think the Huskies are also overvalued here because they have been making the betting public a lot of money here of late. They are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall. There’s no question that oddsmakers have been forced to shade this line towards the Huskies because they know the betting public is going to continue to back them. You may even get +14 by the time this game goes off on Tuesday.

One thing that really stands out to me is how tough Ohio has played Northern Illinois in recent meetings. Indeed, the Bobcats are 5-3 straight up in their last eight meetings. They are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings. Their three losses in the last eight meetings have come by 7, 3 and 7 points. That includes a 14-21 home loss to the Huskies last season in which the Bobcats outgained them 344-325.

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS intheir last six games following a win. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Ohio Tuesday.

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NBA  |  Nov 24, 2015
Lakers vs. Warriors
  at  BOVADA
in 3h

Dave’s Tuesday Free Play:

1* on Los Angeles Lakers +17.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are trying to become the first team in NBA history to open a season 16-0.  They are getting all the headlines right now because of it.  With that kind of attention from the national media, the Warriors are heavily overvalued as 17.5-point favorites against the Lakers tonight.  The Lakers haven’t exactly been world beaters, but they’ve only lost by more than 14 points twice this season.  They played the Warriors tough in their final two meetings last year, winning 115-105 as 10-point home dogs, and losing 105-108 as 18-point road dogs.  The Lakers are 27-13 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Los Angeles.

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 28, 2015
Notre Dame vs. Stanford
in 4d

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are on the bubble as far as the playoffs are concerned, and they need a win here at Stanford, and possibly some help from teams like Nebraska, Penn State or TCU. The Cardinal’s playoff hopes are a little slimmer, but they’ve already punched a ticket to the PAC12 Championship Game, and a win over the Irish could keep them in the discussion. My money is on a Stanford team that has a far more impressive body of work.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Christian McCaffrey – The Heisman hopeful ran for 192 yards on 29 carries last week, and he also rank back a 98 yard kick for a TD. He should find plenty of room to run against a Notre Dame team that surrendered 214 rushing yards to Boston College last week.

2. Injuries – The Irish are really banged up, and last week they lost leading rusher C.J. Prosise to a high ankle sprain. He’s not likely to play on Saturday versus Stanford.

3. X-Factor – The Cardinal are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games, and they’ve covered in seven of their last nine versus a team with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the Stanford Cardinal (Free)
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