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NFL  |  Sep 21, 2014
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints
-10½+100
  at  5DIMES
in 3d

1* Free Play Saints.

From a situational stand-point, there’s no question that this game has all the makings of an epic one-sided rout, I think the home side is worth a second look in this spot. Things could not have gone worse for New Orleans to open the year, it’s 0-2 out of the gates after losing 37-34 in Atlanta in Week 1 and then 26-24 in Cleveland last Sunday. But now the Saints return to New Orleans for their first game at home and with a massive chip on their collective shoulders, there’s no question the team will have something to prove this weekend. The Vikes on the other hand are coming off listless 30-7 loss at home to the Patriots and they’ve been rocked by scandal over the last week, star RB Adrian Peterson has been charged with child negligence. Peterson has been activated and de-activated a few times this week, the RB will not play on Sunday. Obviously this is a huge distraction for the team and is a major factor that New Orleans can take advantage of. Without their workhorse to lean on, I think the Vikes offense sputters this weekend. Note that Minnesota is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road, while the Saints are 11-5 ATS their last 16 in front of the home town crowd. All signs point to a comfortable NEW ORLEANS cover.

AAA Sports

NFL  |  Sep 18, 2014
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+7-115
  at  BOVADA
in 8h

This game features the 0-2 Tampa at the 1-1 Falcons. Things couldn’t have started out worse for Tampa Bay losing the the crappy Rams thanks to a bad NFL rule as they were in position for a game winning field goal Sunday. Expect alot of pissed of Buccaneers Thursday as they do no want to fall to 0-3 and on National T.V. it’s a huge game. Now I don’t see them winning but I think there defense keeps them in the game. And with the public so heavy on Atlanta who still hasn’t straighten out their suspect Defense. Take the nice +7 and ride Tampa Thursday night for a nice win.***DON’T MISS OUT ON MY 20* College play and 15* play on this games total I am 6-1 on Thursday games***

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
North Carolina
+2½-110
  at  BMAKER
in 2d

East Carolina came through for us last week as it was in a great scheduling situation. The Pirates were coming off a loss against South Carolina the previous week. They outgained the Gamecocks in that game but two interceptions by Shane Carden led to the 10 points that South Carolina scored in the third quarter. Take those away and the Pirates could have been in contention for the outright win. Coming into Blacksburg, the Pirates were 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games following a defeat and they added to that once again. Virginia Tech meanwhile defeated Ohio St. the previous week and it was obviously still feeling the hangover. Now East Carolina takes on another big brother and it is actually favored, more than likely based on the win last week. North Carolina is 2-0 with unimpressive wins over Liberty and San Diego St. but the Tar Heels will be a motivated bunch this week as they will be out for revenge after losing to the Pirates at home last season by 24 points. It was the first loss against East Carolina since 2007 and first non-cover since 2001 in this series. The Tar Heels are no joke this season as they have 15 starters back from a team that finished 6-1 over their last seven games following a dismal 1-5 start. North Carolina had a bye week last week so the extra time will be an added benefit. The Pirates are 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a winning record while going 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games following consecutive non-conference games. Play (331) North Carolina Tar Heels

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 18, 2014
Auburn vs. Kansas State
Auburn
-8½-110
  at  PINNACLE
in 7h

Auburn Tigers -8.5

If you saw the Arkansas/A&M game this one will go about the same. In that one the brute force of the running game of the visiting Razorbacks eventually took over making a game that was close early a blowout.

Substitute Auburn and their gashing ground attack and you have a winner on Thursday night. The Tigers will overpower the Wildcats who won’t be able to scheme their way to keeping it close.

Auburn ATS

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
-120
  at  PINNACLE
in 9h

9/18 06:10 PM MLB (959) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS (960) SAN DIEGO PADRES edit Take: (960) SAN DIEGO PADRES Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, September 18th comes in the National League as Philadelphia and the Padres battle in Petco Park in San Diego. San Diego is a huge park and Philadelphia is 3,000 miles from home, a tough situational spot. The Phillies are 17-36 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing record. This Phillies offense is terrible and starter Kyle Kendrick (9-12, 4.72 ERA) has not been sharp on the road with a 3-6 record and a 5.11 ERA. The Phillies are 6-13 in Kendrick’s last 19 road starts. The Padres are 23-8 in their last 31 home games. Starter Robbie Erlin has a 2.92 ERA at home and the Phillies have not faced him. The Padres are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 9-2 at home against a team with a losing record. Play the Padres!

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
-8-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 2d

362 Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
The Yellow Jackets enter conference play on Saturday at 3-0 on the season, but all is not well in Atlanta. A case can be made that Georgia Tech has yet to play a quality game. GT faced two teams with similar offensive styles to their own, Wofford and Georgia Southern. In each of those games the Jackets were beaten at what they do best, running the football. Wofford had a 5.8 to 5.3 ypr edge, while Georgia Southern was even more alarming at 7.4 to 4.7. That means that even though Georgia Tech faces that type of offense everyday at practice they couldn’t stop it. Against Tulane the Yellow Jackets trailed by a touchdown with three minutes to go until halftime before pulling away. 
Virginia Tech had a letdown last week after knocking off Ohio State on the road. East Carolina is a very well coached team that took it to the Hokies. You can bet it will be all business at practice this week in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is very familiar with the option offense of Paul Johnson. The last five years VT has held GT to final point totals of 10, 17, 26, 21, and 28 points. Keep in mind that in those years Georgia Tech averaged 35, 34, 34, 26 and 34 points per game. So in the last five meetings Frank Beamer’s crew held them to an average of 12 points less than their season average. With the Hokies now possessing a quarterback who can open the field we see Virginia Tech winning this one by a margin.
PLAY VIRGINIA TECH

We were way ahead of the line moves once again last week. Be sure to check daily for our football releases. 

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Tulane vs. Duke
Duke
-16½-110
  at  PINNACLE
in 2d

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #328 Take Duke Blue Devils over Tulane Green Wave (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) The Blue Devils had a remarkable season last year in route to the ACC Championship Game and appear to have not missed a beat in 2014. Duke has had three blowout victories in 2014 and you can expect more of the same against Tulane this Saturday. Tulane has not beaten an FBS team this season and this will be their toughest test yet of 2014. Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Tulane is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the ACC. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football card featuring a pair of top selections on Saturday and Sunday. 

MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
-126
  at  PINNACLE
in 9h

Free Pick on the San Diego Padres -

The Padres are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Phillies. San Diego had won each of the first two games in the series before getting shutdown by Cole Hamels last night. With Kyle Hendricks taking the mound for Philadelphia in this one, I look for the Padres to bounce back and close out the series with a win. Kendrick is just 3-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.309 WHIP over 14 road starts in 2014.

I’ll gladly take my chances on Robbie Erlin to out pitch Kendrick and guide San Diego to victory. Erlin has a 3.00 ERA and 1.042 WHIP over 4 home starts and comes in with a strong 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP over his last 3 outings. In his only career start against the Phillies, Erlin held Philadelphia to just 2 earned runs on 4 hits over 6 1/3 innings.

There’s a key system backing San Diego, as home teams who are hitting 2.55 or worse as a team after a stretch where they are hitting .225 or worse over their last 15 games are 70-27 over the last 5 seasons against an opposing starter with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20. That’s a 72% system in favor of the Padres. Take San Diego!

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Bowling Green vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin
-27-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 2d

Bowling Green @ Wisconsin 12:00 ET
Game# 325-326
Play On: Wisconsin -26.5

Ordinarily my golden rule of thumb is to never lay more than 21.0 points with a college football favorite. However, there’s overwhelming technical handicapping evidence supporting this selection, and it just made it too difficult to ignore. The keys to both of these systems is that the Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a week of rest, and the Bowling Green Falcons are coming off a 45-42 home win over Indiana last Saturday.

Besides the technical data, Bowling Green went from being 15th nationally in scoring defense in 2013, to allowing an average of 35.7 points, and 567.3 yards per contest in their first 3-games in 2014. That also includes a game against a FCS opponent in VMI who were able to amass 418 yards of total offense versus the Falcons defense. The Falcons will have to contend with a very potent Badgers running game that compiled a shocking 268-yards rushing versus an excellent LSU defense in their season opener. Through the first 2-games the Badgers are averaging 5.6 yards per rush, and allowing opponents a paltry 2.3 yards per rushing attempt.

Any home favorite of 21.5 to 32.5 that’s coming off a week of rest, has gone 51-14-1 ATS (78.6%) since the start of the 2005 season.

Any home favorite of 21.5 or more, versus an opponent that’s coming off a straight up win in which they allowed 32-points or more, has gone 36-12 ATS (75%) since 1986. In case you’re keeping score at home, the favorite has won all 48 of these game straight up.



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