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MLB  |  Jul 31, 2014
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
in 28m

FREE PLAY for 7/31

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+118)

The Key: The Dodgers are showing a little value on the run line today with Kershaw on the hill.  Atlanta’s Teheran has a 2.71 ERA on the season (4.10 on the road though), but the odds are stacked against him here.  You want to fade NL underdogs of +175 to +250 that are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or lower against an opponent that is starting a pitcher who gives up an average of 0.5 home runs or less per start.  Doing so has produced a jaw-dropping 54-5 mark since 1997.  Teams fitting into this situation have lost by 2.9 runs on average.  Kershaw has been nasty.  He has a 1.76 ERA and a 0.801 WHIP on the season.  These numbers spell bad news for the Braves, who are 0-11 since the beginning of last season in road games versus NL starters with an ERA of 2.70 or better.  They have lost these 11 by an average of 3.6 runs.  Atlanta is also 0-7 this season on the road versus NL starters with a WHIP of 1.150 or better, and it has lost these by an average score of 6.0 to 1.9.  It is also worth noting that the Dodgers are 15-0 the last three seasons in Kershaw’s starts versus NL East foes, winning these by an average score of 5.5 to 1.7.  Take LA on the run line.

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